Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error

JMA’s Five-day Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast

Since 22 April 2009, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued five-day tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts. This paper introduces these forecasts, including the method used, interpretation of the results obtained, forecast cases and future challenges. One of the forecast’s unique aspects is its determination of the radius of a 70% probability circle (PC) using the level of forecast un...

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast

Tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques: A review

Delivering accurate cyclone forecasts in time is of key importance when it comes to saving human lives and reducing economic loss. Difficulties arise because the geographical and climatological characteristics of the various cyclone formation basins are not similar, which entails that a single forecasting technique cannot yield reliable performance in all ocean basins. For this reason, global f...

Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Needed improvements in the accuracy of official TC track forecasts include: (i) reducing the severity and frequen...

Ensemble Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

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